Washington: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a new economic outlook report, revising Nigeria's economic growth projections for 2025 and 2026. The report, unveiled during the World Economic Outlook (WEO) press briefing at the ongoing IMF/World Bank 2025 Spring Meetings, has adjusted the growth forecast for Nigeria to 3.0 percent for 2025 and 2.7 percent for 2026. This is a downward revision from the previous projections of 3.2 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, as stated in the January WEO update. According to News Agency of Nigeria, the IMF report attributes this revision to increasing global uncertainties and sustained weakness in oil prices. The report highlights a growing probability of a global recession, now estimated at 40 percent compared to the previous 25 percent estimation released in October 2024. The IMF pointed to domestic economic challenges and worsening global conditions as key factors behind the revised growth outlook. The report details several contributing factors, i ncluding trade tensions, reduced demand from advanced economies, and a significant drop in crude oil prices. The Fund cautioned that without robust policy responses, Nigeria could struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability in the face of these external pressures. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, noted that emerging economies like Nigeria are particularly vulnerable due to their integration into global supply chains. Gourinchas stated, "The uncertainty is discouraging investment and activity, and these countries are suffering from declining demand for their exports."
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